I don't know what is glossed over in all the IPCC reports, so let's take a look what to look out for:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_425003913920_14_0/station.txt - I don't recall how I got this reference, but it's some NASA data set. You will observe lots of 999.9 - that's missing data. Not sure why it would be missing in the recent years, but ok. Also, it's not global temperature, but let's take a look anyway, to see how the temperature *proxy* can behave.
What's the meaning of "trend"? Is this just a linear regression fitted with smallest error? If so, we can do linest in excel.
2007..2019 - yes, 0.04 C / year, it's warming up a lot!
but 1901..2019 - no, 0.005C / year, it's not warming up that much. Well, the claim is that in the last decade it started warming up much faster? ok, let's compute 10-year linest for all decades.
I get everything between -0.217 C / year for the decade 1986..1996, to 0.187 C / year for the decade 1978..1988.
Surely, I am doing something lame here, but I want to use this as the baseline dumb thing. This little exploration is the reason why when people say "trend" I want to know more about what they mean by that. To make sure they aren't doing the same lame thing I am doing.
no subject
I don't know what is glossed over in all the IPCC reports, so let's take a look what to look out for:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_425003913920_14_0/station.txt - I don't recall how I got this reference, but it's some NASA data set. You will observe lots of 999.9 - that's missing data. Not sure why it would be missing in the recent years, but ok. Also, it's not global temperature, but let's take a look anyway, to see how the temperature *proxy* can behave.
What's the meaning of "trend"? Is this just a linear regression fitted with smallest error? If so, we can do linest in excel.
2007..2019 - yes, 0.04 C / year, it's warming up a lot!
but 1901..2019 - no, 0.005C / year, it's not warming up that much. Well, the claim is that in the last decade it started warming up much faster? ok, let's compute 10-year linest for all decades.
I get everything between -0.217 C / year for the decade 1986..1996, to 0.187 C / year for the decade 1978..1988.
Surely, I am doing something lame here, but I want to use this as the baseline dumb thing. This little exploration is the reason why when people say "trend" I want to know more about what they mean by that. To make sure they aren't doing the same lame thing I am doing.