The discussion is about how the growth rate is extracted from observable data.
Then once we extract that, how is the confidence interval estimated? Surely this should work when we don't have any model?
(Of course, knowing some cycles and oscillations is going to help, but shouldn't be a prerequisite, right? Otherwise we can't tell the growth rate until we have the exact model!)
Then the growth rates that are alarming, did they publish confidence intervals? I can't find that easily.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2020-01-10 07:54 am (UTC)Then once we extract that, how is the confidence interval estimated? Surely this should work when we don't have any model?
(Of course, knowing some cycles and oscillations is going to help, but shouldn't be a prerequisite, right? Otherwise we can't tell the growth rate until we have the exact model!)
Then the growth rates that are alarming, did they publish confidence intervals? I can't find that easily.