I don't think so. My humble understanding is that we want to get a predictor, but we need to make sure it is better than a coin toss.
"авторы же статьи выдают некую цифру как абсолютную ошибку, 0.5Ц"
Yes. I can't comment, because I can only assume they and the reviewers understand the matter better than me.
They don't talk about ENSO, solar cycles, etc using those names, but I am not sure your worry is justified - the study of long range and short range correlations is written all over the paper.
"Even though the data model produced Gaussian‐distributed data and the observed anomalies are not perfectly Gaussian, the empirical error bars which we can determine up to N≈500 agree well with the ARFIMA model results. This suggests that the Gaussian model works sufficiently well to take the extrapolation to the 30 year error bars seriously."
"Although the physical consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are undebatable, this work shows that a quantitative assessment of climate change from observed data is still challenging"
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2020-02-05 09:04 pm (UTC)I don't think so. My humble understanding is that we want to get a predictor, but we need to make sure it is better than a coin toss.
"авторы же статьи выдают некую цифру как абсолютную ошибку, 0.5Ц"
Yes. I can't comment, because I can only assume they and the reviewers understand the matter better than me.
They don't talk about ENSO, solar cycles, etc using those names, but I am not sure your worry is justified - the study of long range and short range correlations is written all over the paper.
"Even though the data model produced Gaussian‐distributed data and the observed anomalies are not perfectly Gaussian, the empirical error bars which we can determine up to N≈500 agree well with the ARFIMA model results. This suggests that the Gaussian model works sufficiently well to take the extrapolation to the 30 year error bars seriously."
"Although the physical consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are undebatable, this work shows that a quantitative assessment of climate change from observed data is still challenging"